The EURUSD gapped higher on the open by around 200 pips as the results of the first round of presidential elections in France ends. The two candidates who are through to the second round are Macron and Le Pen. Markets have widely priced in that Macron, the pro globalization candidate, will take the French Presidency, prompting the EUR to spike higher across the board with the EURUSD printing 5 month highs above 1.0900. The second vote is on May7th and the EUR will remain sensitive to news regarding the exit polls. Should Le Pen show some strength in numbers, the EUR will soften as trader’s price in the increased odds of the nationalist win, who are campaigning on the bases of triggering a Frexit.
The JPY was another casualty of the weekend as it softened across the board in combination with gold. Both safe havens were dumped aggressively as markets have priced in better conditions, leading to a flow away from the safe havens. Traders are ignoring geo political threats for now as they seek more aggressive profits. However, any shocks in Syria or North Korea will quickly see these assets regain favoritism as they are driven higher.
Crude oil continues to soften as bears have retaken the $50 mark on fears of oversupply, prompting the Iranian oil minister to declare that he has confidence in the freeze, but to little avail as sellers seem determined to hold on to the $50 mark. Should markets be convinced of a more aggressive supply cut we will likely see the commodity retake $50 as trader’s price in the expected decrease in supply.
Looking ahead, the USD continues to be slammed lower as we see the USD Index, a measure of the strength of the USD against a basket of currencies, currently trading below the 100 level as sellers test the 99 mark. Any news regarding the upcoming health bill vote or tax reform announcement by Trump will affect the greenback. A more positive toned week will see the USD regain its strength as the USD Index is pushed beyond 100 else we will see further downside as bears target 98 on worse than expected news.