ECB day has arrived and markets will be watching for the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement on the Minimum Bid Rate, expected unchanged at 0%, before a press conference is in which they will discuss their views and any possible changes to monetary policy. Should the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, strike a positive tone in which he sees the need to hold off on further stimulus or begin to unwind the already existing QE, we would see the EUR move higher across the board. However, should he strike a more pessimistic tone in which he states the need for further action from the ECB, we will likely see the EUR drop aggressively.
Out of the US we are expecting the release of the Core Durable Goods Orders m/m figure which represents the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation, and is regarded as a leading indicator of production. An increase in purchasing orders implies higher demand for manufactured goods which will see the USD strengthen as the implied positive effects on the US economy are priced in. On the other hand, a lower than expected figure will see the USD weaken as markets price in the implied decline in manufacturing and the US economy overall.
The US session sees the release of the USA Pending Home Sales m/m figure. The figure represents the change in the number of existing homes due to be sold but still awaiting the closing transactions and is regarded as a leading indicator of economic health because of the ripple affect a new home purchase has form renovations to furnishing and the financing side. A better than expected release will imply an improvement in the economy which will see the USD strengthen, while a worse than expected release will imply a worsening of economic conditions which will result in a sell off of the USD.