Forex markets have settled in their ranges ahead of today’s key economic release which are sure to set the tone for the upcoming weeks as they help clarify the direction traders will be jumping on.
Out of the UK we have the release of the Manufacturing Production m/m figure, expected at 0.3%, an impressive recovery from last month’s shocker of a 0.9% decline. The manufacturing sector is regarded as very important for the UK economy and the figure will show by how much the output of manufactured goods in the country have increased by. A better than expected release will imply growth of the UK economy and traders will look to buy the GBP as they price in the improved conditions while a worse than expected release will see the GBP weaken as traders’ price in the worsening conditions. Adding to the GBP delights is the speech by the BOE Governor Carney, who traders will be watching closely for comments regarding the current and future position of the BOE regarding the economy and monetary policy. A more dovish tone by Carney will see the GBP weakened while a more hawkish tone will have bulls licking their lips as they break out to the north.
Out of Canada, we are expected the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures, expected at 5.7k and 6.7% respectively. The figures will give traders clues as to how the labor market is performing and open speculation as to what actions the Bank of Canada will be taking in their next meeting. Better than expected release will see the CAD strengthen across the board while a worse than expected release will see the CAD weakened across the board.
The highlight of the day is being released by the USA. Today will see a release of three important labor statistics which markets regard as the most important when it comes to evaluating the health of the US economy. The releases are the NFP Employment Change, the Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate. The importance of the data is intensified today as the FED, who sets the interest rates for the country, will be watching closely in a bid to further understands the current economic conditions before making their next move. This week’s FOMC minutes showed that voters remain sensitive to economic data and if today’s data can prove that the US economy is improving further, we will see markets buying the USD as they price in a more imminent increase of interest rates. Conversely if the numbers disappoint, this will be viewed by markets as a warning that interest rate hikes won’t be as aggressive as they hoped and we would see the USD being sold off as markets price this sentiment in.