With the BP under pressure today's data is of paramount importance, should the Current Account and Final GDP q/q figures, expected at -30.5B and 0.6% respectively, beat expectation, we will see the GBP strengthen and the GBPUSD major support hold as we see the pair lift off from near multi-decade lows. However, if the data is worse than expected, we would see the GBP weaken and the GBPUSD potentially make new multi-decade lows as it drops below its post Brexit lows.
The EUR has held steady for the last few weeks and today's CPI data will surely see the range broken in the EURUSD. Better than expected data will confirm the ECB``s confidence, seeing the EUR appreciate against its peers while worse than expected prints will see the EUR drop sharply as markets begin pricing in further stimulus by the ECB.
The USD has enjoyed a good run of late and today’s data will either see the momentum increase or the USD do a U-turn. Bette than expected data will see the USD appreciate further while worse than expected data will have the greenback bulls scrambling for cover.
Today’s Key data is as follows:
- Current Account expected at -30.5B
- Final GDP q/q expected at 0.6%
- CPI Flash Estimate y/y expected at 0.4%
- Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y expected at 0.9%
- GDP m/m expected at 0.3%
- RMPI m/m expected at -1%
- Core PCE Price Index m/m expected at 0.2%
- Personal Spending m/m expected at 0.2%
- Chicago PMI expected at 52.1
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment expected at 90.1
- Manufacturing PMI expected at 50.5
- Non-Manufacturing PMI previously at 53.5