Today sees a host of economic releases, which markets will be anticipating as we see asset run out of steam and in need of some new information. As can be seen form the calendar below, every major economy is expecting important releases.
At this stage of the world recession, the only major player who has raised interest rates has been the US, and markets have been eager for the next rate hike which the FED alluded to several months back. Today’s data out of the US will either add fuel to rate hike expectations or douse the flames with sand, depending on their outcome. Similarly, markets will be watching data from around the world to see how each regions economic policy and actions are faring in the ongoing battle of making ones economy resilient to the current down ward spiral.
As a general rule to trading fundamental releases, if the data is released better than expected, the respective asset will appreciate in price and vice-versa should the economic figure be worse than expected.
Also, it is worth noting that important news can be the catalyst to breaking through strong resistance and support levels, providing an excellent complement to technical analysis, where should a key support level be broken, the asset is likely to continue lower as it triggers the surrounding stops, while the reverse is true if a key resistance level is broken, we would see the asset move higher as stops to the upside are triggered.
Today’s key economic data is as follows:
- German Retail Sales m/m expected at 0.5%
- German Unemployment Change expected at -2K
- CPI Flash Estimate y/y expected at 0.3%
- Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y expected at 0.9%
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change expected at 174k
- Chicago PMI expected at 54.1
- Pending Home Sales m/m expected at 0.7%
- GDP m/m expected at 0.4%
- Overseas Trade Index q/q expected at -1.4%
- Capital Spending q/y expected at 5.6%
- Manufacturing PMI expected at 49.9
- Non-Manufacturing PMI previously at 53.9
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI expected at 50.1
- Retail Sales m/m expected at 0.3%
- Private Capital Expenditure q/q expected at -4%