Key Economic Data - Coming Up Today(All Times GMT+3)
The EURUSD rose to 1.2600 during the FOMC Meeting Minutes and subsequently corrected back to 1.2525. The EURUSD is now climbing up towards yesterday's high and has reached 1.2575 so far this morning. The pair is holding steady despite poor data on the French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Coming up on the EUR is a raft of today including German EU-wide Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs, GBP Retail Sales and Industrial Order data. In the US the economic data calendar is packed full of releases with CPI, Core CPI and Unemployment Claims, followed by Manufacturing data, Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales. Whenever there is a heavy data flow this increases the probability of large price movements and volatility in fx and asset markets. This week's range on the EURUSD is set between 1.2443-1.2600. The pair has a two-year low level at 1.2358 and we are just under 2% above the lows, while the October high is at 1.2883 just below 1.30. WTI Crude Oil is back below $75 a barrel, now at $74.59 and just off the 4 year low at $73.18. The DJIA is up close to the all-time high at 17,685 and the USDJPY has moved considerably higher to 119 Yen and made a new 6 year high at that level.
The RSI on the EURUSD Weekly Chart has crossed back below 30 after rising through the 30 area yesterday and the day before. A reading of 30 on the RSI is considered oversold and raises the possibility of a near term recovery in the pair. The next move will be to see if the RSI stabilizes and moves higher or if it will fall back towards the reading of 15 made in September this year. The EURUSD has declined for each of the last 4 months but this latest move up has put the pair in positive territory for November.
At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel as seen in the H4. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish. - This has been our consistent outlook for three months. The pair has been below the key 1.30 level for eight consecutive weeks.
EURUSD Support areas include 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2335, 1.2300, 1.2200, 1.2250. Resistance levels above are at 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2900 & 1.30
EURUSD 5 Minute Chart
EURUSD 4 Hour Chart
EURUSD Pivot Point Table
Gold experienced large volatility swinging first from $1202 down to $1174 before rising back up to $1199 and declined once again to $1178 and is currently up at $1186. This ends a series of three days where Gold had been making gains and holding steady. The coming days will be key to determining if Gold can recover up above $1200 and continue to erase some of this years losses. Gold opened the year at $1205 an ounce and therefore is only 2% down for the year. In the early months of this year Gold had advanced as high as $1388 an ounce and as such is $200 off the yearly highs for 2014. With a just over a month until the end of this year it is integral to see if Gold closes higher or lower than the Jan 1st 2014 level. Between 1999 and 2013 for 14 consecutive years the price rose year to year. In 2013 the price opened the year at $1674 and closed at $1205 posting a first yearly loss in 15 years. Therefore it is key to see if the year to year loss extends into a second year of if Gold can shrug of 2013 as a bad year and recover back up towards the 2011 all-time high of $1921. To be sure there are competing factors, some of which are weighing on Gold whilst simultaneously there are positives for Gold. This is a difficult time to predict the upcoming trend and therefore the ability to do so will result in great profits for those who can analyze the pattern and draw the correct conclusion.
Gold prices have fallen from $1345 an ounce in August to as low as $1130 in November, erasing $215 from the value of Gold. The $1180 area remains the key to a recovery in Gold which is down from above $1900 in 2011. Gold had advanced from $245 an ounce in 1999 to $1921 in 2011 posting 12 years of straight gains. Now the market has leveled off. Now the price is above $1180 the odds of a recovery are improved, if the price slips below $1180 the outlook turns bearish.
Support levels for Gold can be seen at $1180, $1160 $1140, $1130, $1125, $1115, $1100. Resistance to the upside materializes at $1195, $1205, $1215, $1225, $1235, $1240.
Gold 5 Minute Chart
Gold 4 Hour Chart
Gold Pivot Point Table